Published on Science Direct from 26 May 2018.
Climate Risk Management - Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local standards.

Socio-economic scenarios enable us to understand the extent to which global, national and
local-scale societal developments can in?uence the nature and severity of climate change risks and response options. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to adaptation and mitigation that alternative futures entail. However, SSPs are primarily de?ned for the global scale. If countries are to test their adaptation and mitigation options for robustness across plausible future socio-economic conditions, then SSPs require country-relevant detail to understand climate change risks at the national and local scales. New Zealand is used to illustrate how nationally relevant socio-economic scenarios, nested within SSPs can be developed to inform national- and local-scale studies of climate change impacts and their implications. Shared policy assumptions were developed, involving a mix of climate-speci?c and non-climate-speci?c policies, to demonstrate how international links and global-scale developments are critical locally—local choices may accelerate, reduce or even negate the impact of global trends for extended periods. The typology was then ‘tested’ by applying it in a local context. The research challenges observed in developing credible, salient and legitimate national-scale socio-economic scenarios include issues in developing scenarios across a multidisciplinary team. Finally, recommendations for adapting shared climate policy assumptions to produce national and local scenarios, and for assessing the feasibility and e?ectiveness of climate change adaptation options are presented. These include the need for: guidelines to embed national scenarios in global frameworks; a limit the number of plausible futures; inter-operability of models; an ability to work towards e?ective multi-disciplinary teams and integrative research; and the opportunity to involve participatory processes where feasible




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Article title: Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios
Article reference: CRM159
Journal title: Climate Risk Management
Corresponding author: Dr. Bob Frame
First author: Dr. Bob Frame
Online publication complete: 2-JUN-2018
DOI information: 10.1016/j.crm.2018.05.001


